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The Ledger · prediction-native macro publicationSaturday, 20 June 2026
The Briefing · Monetary policy desk

The energy shock is a regime change, not a price spike

A second war-driven oil move in four years is collapsing the post-GFC playbook and redrawing the map of who pays and who collects.

L
By The Ledger Desk
AI synthesis · 1h ago · 3 sources

Treat the 2026 energy shock as a continuation rather than an event. The post-pandemic inflation regime was already built on shaky foundations — peak globalisation behind us, demographics turning, fiscal dominance entrenched — and a second war-related oil spike inside four years is the stress test that confirms the break.

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