Raw signals from policymakers, central banks, and institutional research, ranked by editorial relevance. Each one is a candidate to become a tracked claim with a market attached.
Markets appear to underprice downside tail risk—especially in rates—because policy uncertainty centers on whether labor-market deterioration or stickier-than-expected inflation will dominate; base case is modest easing,…
US real and nominal GDP have been stronger than expected—driven by consumer demand, wage gains, and tech-led business investment—and are likely to cool modestly but remain above recent averages in 2025; inflation is expe…
The author is building an AI-driven, agentic research and macro trading system to map the prevailing macro regime and identify a few large asymmetric trades; they argue AI converging with higher-quality data and expandin…
Artemis II launched four astronauts—Commander Reid Wiseman, Pilot Victor Glover, Mission Specialists Christina Koch and Jeremy Hansen—aboard the Orion spacecraft named Integrity from Pad 39B at Kennedy Space Center on April 3 at 6:35 p.m. EDT for a 10-day mission around the Moon.
“wipe out a whole civilization”
““hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.””
Sabastian Sawe finished the London Marathon in less than two hours, the first recorded such time in competition in 2,515 years.
Volkswagen committed $5.8 billion to invest in Rivian, unlocked upon reaching milestones.
John Ternus will begin as Apple's CEO on September 1, with Tim Cook becoming executive chairman.
Donald Trump administration is discussing an executive order for government oversight of new AI models, including a formal review process
Claude Mythos Preview identified thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities, many critical, in every major operating system, web browser, and other key software.
“The only permissible consideration of race in creating new districts is when “present-day intentional racial discrimination regarding voting” can be proved.”
“present-day intentional racial discrimination regarding voting”
““whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back” if Iran does not capitulate.”
““Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.””
“The United States must do whatever it takes to finish the mission in Iran, including boots on the ground if necessary to permanently eliminate the threat of a nuclear-armed Tehran.”
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in 14 million barrels a day of oil.
About 1,600 ships remain stranded at the Strait of Hormuz, compared to around 130 vessels a day before the war, causing oil and gas prices to spike.
Researchers jailbroke frontier AI models into producing detailed bioweapons synthesis routes, with chatbots describing how to assemble deadly pathogens and unleash them in public spaces.
In its 2021 Monetary Policy Strategy Review, the ECB Governing Council committed to ensuring that the Eurosystem fully takes into account the implications of climate change and the green transition for monetary policy and central banking.
a16z crypto announced a new $2.2 billion fund, its fifth fund, bringing total raised to $9.8 billion.
Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial ships for weeks.
Ukrainian missiles struck targets in Russia’s Cheboksary region after traveling more than 1,500 kilometers.
Significantly higher memory costs are expected in June and beyond, driving an increasing impact on Apple's business.
New Series D investors include BlackRock, Wellington, D.E. Shaw, Schroders, Nvidia, Salesforce Ventures, Santander, KPN, Deutsche Telekom, Jamie Foxx, Eva Longoria, and Hwang Dong-hyuk.
“Russia’s decision to downsize the parade shows its weakness and fear that drones may buzz over Red Square.”
“New social safety nets, such as universal basic income or universal basic compute, are needed to navigate the transition to an AI-integrated future.”
““We need silence from such strikes and all others like them every single day, not just for a few hours somewhere out there for ‘celebrations.’””
“The Navy would begin the blockade, “seek and interdict” vessels that had paid Iran to get through the strait, and then start clearing the waterway of sea mines.”
““Both of these are amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools, and the customer recognition of that is happening faster than what we had predicted, and so we saw higher than expected demand.””
““a whole civilization will die tonight””
“Kevin Warsh could rank among great American central bankers if he withstands Trump and steers Fed to safer waters.”
“Interest rate decisions will be based on assessment of the inflation outlook and risks, incoming data, dynamics of underlying inflation, and strength of monetary policy transmission, without pre-committing to a particular rate path.”
Supreme Court case pending on Trump's attempt to sack Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in old mortgage documents.
Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell on April 24th.
Cartel-laundered Colombian gold ends up in U.S. coins minted and sold as 'American' by the U.S. Mint.
FluidStack signed a $50 billion deal to build data centers for Anthropic.
High-quality synthetic data enables AI development to continue scaling even as the supply of original human content becomes exhausted.
“Sam Altman remains optimistic about using synthetic data for training artificial intelligence despite fears of model collapse.”
“Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russia are an “entirely just response to Russian strikes.””
“Russia’s cease-fire announcement shows cynicism timed for Moscow’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9.”
“The market overall will be supply-limited for quite a bit, with the biggest bottleneck in chip manufacturing; hyperscalers will not get enough chips for the next two, three, even five years.”
“Early design choices for DLT architectures will determine the system's lock-in configuration and whether tokenisation gains are broadly distributed.”