Macro briefings synthesised across analyst, central-bank, and primary-source clusters. Every claim attached to a tracked prediction.
US growth remains resilient into 2026 with monthly income-side GDP showing no recession; corporate reinvestment (PK growth law) currently outpaces aggregate demand—raising overcapacity and disinflation risks—while AI-driven investment boosts TFP and foreign capital inflows continue to exert downward pressure on long-term yields.
With CPI near 3.8% and Treasury yields rising amid stretched fiscal finances and a fragile consumer, the Fed may resort to yield-curve control and adopt alternative inflation metrics (e.g., trimmed-mean PCE) to justify rate cuts—actions that effectively resume large-scale money creation and would transfer the cost to households.
Senate Republicans advanced Kevin M.
New data show private credit is facing widespread, persistent redemption pressures — not a temporary or isolated problem — signaling an ongoing implosion that amplifies systemic risk alongside overvalued equities, strained consumers, and a Fed constrained by inflation.
Defining inflation solely as consumer price increases (CPI/PCE) obscures monetary expansion's primary effects on asset prices and distributional outcomes, enabling large-scale money and credit creation with limited political accountability and rising inequality.
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