Macro briefings synthesised across analyst, central-bank, and primary-source clusters. Every claim attached to a tracked prediction.
Current indicators point to above-trend U.S.
A sustained energy shock can create a stagflationary regime that breaks the normal central-bank reaction function, forcing a trade-off between fighting inflation and preserving growth; that trade-off amplifies geopolitical leverage, drives cross-border capital flows, and will show up first in FX and rates before spilling into assets like gold.
Markets appear to underprice downside tail risk—especially in rates—because policy uncertainty centers on whether labor-market deterioration or stickier-than-expected inflation will dominate; base case is modest easing, steeper 2s10s, improving equity breadth, and growth normalizing into 2026.
A macro-investing podcast that distills 30 years of market experience into practical, candid takes—learning from both wins and losses—through themed episodes such as 'Ivan's Double' and others addressing gold miners, SaaS, Japanese banks and regional market views.
Kevin Warsh’s testimony outlines an explicit Fed regime change: prioritize interest-rate policy over balance-sheet stimulus, adopt new inflation data and communication practices, coordinate balance-sheet reduction with Treasury, and accommodate digital dollar expansion via private stablecoins — all of which reshape liquidity, FX, and asset-price transmission and favor a credit-cycle melt-up thesis.
The U.S.
A collection of linked reports highlighting structural breakdowns: market manipulation and regulatory capture in exchanges and antitrust enforcement; geopolitically driven oil supply risk compounded by insurers' unwillingness to underwrite tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; mounting uninsurability of regions; environmental and infrastructure impacts from AI data center buildout; cybersecurity breaches and flawed military targeting data that produced civilian harm.
Portfolio manager is re-evaluating uranium exposure and adding protective hedges while implementing hedge-book changes and updates to the BUSHY™ Multi Asset ETF and Acorn books, including three new highly convex trades; BUSHY beta erased the prior week's drawdown.
Big Tech and semiconductors are driving a parabolic, AI-fueled market rally with valuations well above historical norms, while heavy hyperscaler CAPEX (~$300bn) raises questions about investment efficiency; proprietary metrics (MCEI, MAIM) are proposed to gauge whether AI spending converts into returns, and equal-/mid-cap stocks present relatively more attractive value.
Being correct about fundamentals often doesn’t translate into profits because timing, liquidity, momentum, and exogenous forces can overwhelm truth.
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