What macro is asking right now

“Swapping out Kevin Warsh for Jerome Powell will not matter much to either inflation or the economy.”

“Atlanta Fed GDPNowcast has crossed below 2%.”

“solution and full normal flow is just a question of time, yet it'll take some time to reach pre-war levels, and some further hiccups are to be expected ... in any case, as we resume normal traffic, the pressure on Oil prices should ease!”

“The CME single stock futures launching July 27 on NVIDIA, AMD, and other tech names are the instruments to have staged for exactly that moment.”

“Eurozone forward curves price 47 basis points of rate hikes by year-end, while US curves price a pause, driven by real rate differentials amid Eurozone's crude oil shortage.”

“The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.5% and the 30-year Treasury yield has risen above 5%, contrary to the typical decline expected during periods of weakening growth.”

“Inflation remains around 3.8%, nearly double the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and has become embedded in housing, insurance, healthcare, wages, food, and government spending.”

“The bond market is starting to call bullshit on America's fiscal and monetary policy, and foreign governments are dumping U.S. Treasuries with China leading the way.”

“The more likely path I think puts gold eventually on a (rocky and volatile) tracjectory to eventually get to $10,000.”

“In March 2020, private demand for Treasuries suddenly dried up, sending short-term funding costs surging and forcing the Federal Reserve to buy bonds.”

“There's no reason to raise interest rates…. We should actually lower interest rates.”

“In May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 4.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.”

“In May respondents to the University of Michigan's consumer survey expected inflation of 3.9% five years ahead, almost a percentage point higher than before Mr Trump took office in January 2025.”

“I had a rotten head of the Fed, now I have a great head of the Fed”

“But the ability to blame rising prices on a brief war could vanish by September, weeks before America's midterm elections.”

“As we set up for midterm elections this Fall, I am biased toward a bullish breakout (lower yields), as high inflation from oil is not something you'd want voters to bring into the ballots this November.”