The Compound
Investing in a Multipolar World: Tariffs, Reindustrialization, and the AI CapEx Cycle
A durable regime change driven by shifting voter preferences has increased geopolitical fragmentation and industrial policy, prompting reshoring and large-scale AI-driven CapEx (notably data-center buildouts). That combination creates concentrated investment opportunities in AI infrastructure today and a likely broader re-rating as policy-driven reindustrialization and productivity gains materialize, requiring multi-asset, cross-disciplinary research to assess outcomes.
- Career path and approach: Michael Zezas moved from municipal-credit specialization to public policy and macro research by focusing on how policy (tax, healthcare, fiscal) and secular trends drive credit and asset returns; he emphasizes multi-variable, cross-asset analysis over single-factor playbooks.
- Regime change thesis: Voter attitudes eroded the old Washington Consensus (free trade, multilateralism, minimal state intervention), producing durable policy shifts toward protectionism, industrial policy, and geopolitical fragility rather than a temporary abnormality.
- Trade and industrial policy: Tariffs and non-tariff barriers have risen and are unlikely to revert fully; industrial policy (e.g., CHIPS Act) and government-directed onshoring/reshoring are catalyzing reindustrialization and large, bipartisan CapEx programs.
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