The base case for 2026 is not a bearish one. Growth holds, the policy mix stays accommodative, and AI capex continues to broaden the profit base of the S&P 500. Yet the most operationalisable calls in the cluster are about turbulence inside that benign frame: at least one fifteen-percent drawdown, a VIX (the implied volatility index on the S&P 500) that refuses to settle, a yield curve that resteepens, and a dollar that drifts lower against the Swiss franc. Constructive backdrop, choppy path.
The cleanest framing comes from Maverick Equity Research, which enters the year with what it describes as solid growth, all-time-high equity indices, broadening profit drivers, and a monetary-fiscal mix that remains supportive for stocks. That is the canvas. What sits on top of it is messier. The same outlook anticipates one or more drawdowns of fifteen percent or more on the S&P 500, realised volatility holding above 14.5, and the 10y-2y spread back above fifty basis points by year-end. None of these are recession calls. They are calls about dispersion inside a still-expanding cycle.
The steepener logic deserves attention because it ties the rest of the dossier together. A loosening labour market cools wage pressure, which gives the Fed cover to let the front end drift even as long rates price more term premium against fiscal supply. That same dynamic argues for a softer dollar, which in turn underwrites the gold-up, dollar-down pair trade Maverick favours. The split inside the commodity complex — gold higher, silver and copper lower — is the genuinely contrarian element, since it implies the bid for bullion is monetary rather than industrial. If global manufacturing surprises higher, that call is the first to break.
One dossier, one direction
Readers should be honest about what this cluster is and is not. Every quantified forecast in the file comes from a single shop, and every one sits on the same side: yes to a drawdown, yes to elevated VIX, yes to a steeper curve. There is no bearish counter-position, no rival house arguing the curve stays flat or that the dollar firms. Treat the spectrum accordingly. The separate question of whether the Fed delivers another hike before year-end appears in the dossier as an open prediction at moderate caliber, but without a named forecaster taking the other side, it functions as a hedge against the otherwise dovish thread rather than as a debate.
Predictions serve as both a risk management tool and a financial returns tool — validating or aborting theses as new information emerges.
The Australian tape offers a useful real-time stress test of the resources-down leg. BHP shares fell 5.6 percent to $61.40 after costs for the Jansen potash project rose to at least US$6.9 billion, a 42 percent overrun, according to market reports compiled by Small Caps. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,828.70, down 0.9 percent, while the healthcare sub-index rose five percent on the week as CSL jumped 7.6 percent to $116.32 — its largest single-day gain since February 2022. Capex discipline punished, defensives bid: the rotation Maverick is forecasting for 2026 is already visible in microcosm. The trade to watch is whether copper joins silver on the downside or decouples on AI-driven grid demand. That single divergence will decide whether the commodity call ages well.
Briefings are synthesised by the Ledger Desk from multiple sources cited in the sidebar. They are distinct from Articles, which are written by named contributors and carry a tracked Calibration Index. The Desk does not currently carry a Brier score; this is a deliberate choice for the v0.1 editorial layer and will be revisited.