Commodities sit at the intersection of physical flow, financial positioning, and macro policy. Contango, capex bid, OPEC reaction functions — the working vocabulary for reading the cycle.
The implied volatility premium is the gap between option-implied future volatility and subsequently realised volatility — the price the market charges for bearing uncertainty. Positive on average, it compensates option sellers for tail risk and reflects demand for insurance against large adverse moves in the underlying.
Call skew and put skew measure the relative implied volatility — and thus cost — of out-of-the-money options versus at-the-money on one side of an asset. Call skew prices upside protection richer; put skew prices downside protection richer, revealing which tail the market is paying most to hedge.
ETS2 is the European Union's second Emissions Trading System, a separate cap-and-trade scheme covering CO2 emissions from buildings, road transport, and small industry. Launching in 2027, it pushes carbon costs directly onto household heating fuels and motor fuels via regulated upstream suppliers rather than emitters.