This Is LedgerPrediction-native macro publication

The Ledger · Glossary · 116 terms

Glossary

Macro and prediction-market terms, each with one canonical definition and the current-regime context that makes it useful. Updated as our briefings reference them.

Browse by topic

Rates & Bonds35
Government bond yields, the curve, term premium, and the mechanics of fixed-income pricing.
FX & Currencies4
Exchange-rate regimes, carry, parity conditions, and the cross-currency basis.
Monetary Policy39
Central-bank tooling, reaction functions, balance-sheet operations, and the policy rate path.
Inflation14
CPI, PCE, deflators, breakevens, and the components that drive headline-vs-core divergence.
Equities26
Index structure, dispersion, volatility regimes, and the cash-equity-derivative interaction.
Credit7
Spreads, OAS, CDS, default cycles, and the credit-vs-equity signal.
Commodities2
Energy, metals, agricultural complex, term structure, and capex cycles.
Macro Frameworks49
Models, identities, and the analytical scaffolding used to read the regime.
Markets & Geopolitics20
Market structure, regulation, sanctions, geopolitical risk, and institutional plumbing.

All terms A–Z

#

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

HICP(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices)The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices is the euro area's official inflation gauge, compiled by Eurostat to a common methodology across EU member states. It is the metric against which the ECB defines price stability — a 2 percent symmetric target for headline HICP over the medium term.

I

IORB(Interest on Reserve Balances)IORB is the rate the Federal Reserve pays banks on balances held in their master accounts. It is the Fed's primary administered tool for steering the federal funds rate, setting an effective floor under money-market rates by making reserves a risk-free yielding asset.

M

N

non-bank intermediation(non-bank financial intermediation)Non-bank intermediation is credit provision and maturity transformation conducted outside the regulated banking system — by money-market funds, insurers, pension funds, private-credit vehicles, hedge funds and securitisation conduits. It channels savings to borrowers through capital markets rather than deposit-funded bank balance sheets.

O

output gap(GDP gap)The output gap is the percentage difference between an economy's actual output and its potential output — the level sustainable without generating inflationary pressure. A positive gap signals demand running hot; a negative gap signals slack. It is a central, if unobservable, input to monetary policy and Phillips-curve inflation forecasts.

P

R

S

T

V

volatility risk premium(VRP)The volatility risk premium is the systematic gap between option-implied volatility and the volatility subsequently realised. Implieds typically price above realised, so option sellers earn a premium for bearing the risk that volatility spikes — compensation for insuring others against tail events.

Z

Z6 SOFR contract(December 2026 SOFR futures)The Z6 SOFR contract is the December 2026 three-month SOFR futures contract, where "Z" is the CME month code for December and "6" denotes the year. Its price implies the market's expected average SOFR over that delivery quarter, encoding cumulative Fed rate-cut expectations.