The DSGE models, Bayesian VAR setups, accounting identities, and conceptual scaffolding macro analysis actually rests on. Terms that show up in IMF working papers, BIS quarterly reviews, and FOMC minutes.
The output gap is the percentage difference between an economy's actual output and its potential output — the level sustainable without generating inflationary pressure. A positive gap signals demand running hot; a negative gap signals slack. It is a central, if unobservable, input to monetary policy and Phillips-curve inflation forecasts.
r* is the real short-term interest rate consistent with output at potential and stable inflation — the rate at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. It is unobservable, must be estimated, and anchors how restrictive any given policy stance actually is.
A resampling technique that draws contiguous blocks of a multivariate time series after applying a rotation to its coordinates, preserving short-run serial dependence and the joint cross-correlation structure of variables while remaining robust to structural breaks. Used to build confidence bands and probability estimates without assuming a fixed parametric model.
The tape is trader shorthand for the live record of price action across markets — the real-time stream of prints, quotes, and volume that registers what assets are actually doing, as distinct from the narrative or commentary surrounding them. "Reading the tape" means inferring intent and pressure from flow.
The highest price at which a security or index has traded over the trailing 52 weeks (one year). A rolling reference point for momentum and positioning — current price's distance below the high gauges drawdown severity, and synchronous clustering across asset classes near their highs signals broad risk-on appetite.
Agentic systems are AI-driven architectures in which software agents trade, lend, allocate, and execute financial decisions with limited human oversight, acting autonomously within delegated mandates. Agentic trading applies this to markets: agents place orders, manage risk, and rebalance portfolios on behalf of users rather than merely surfacing recommendations.