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Glossary

incomplete-markets model

Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari model · heterogeneous-agent model · Aiyagari model · precautionary-savings model · incomplete-markets consumption models · incomplete markets models · standard incomplete-markets model · SIM model

A class of macroeconomic models in which households face uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk and cannot fully borrow or hedge against it, so they build precautionary savings buffers. This produces heterogeneous consumption responses and a marginal propensity to consume that varies across the wealth distribution.

How it works

Households face idiosyncratic income shocks they cannot insure because asset markets are incomplete — typically only a single risk-free bond with a borrowing constraint exists. Facing downside risk and unable to hedge, agents accumulate precautionary buffers, which generates a non-degenerate wealth distribution and an aggregate MPC far above the representative-agent benchmark, especially among constrained, hand-to-mouth households.

Why it matters now

Incomplete-markets (HANK-style) models underpin how central banks now think about fiscal transfers, the distributional bite of rate hikes, and consumption resilience — but the 2023-2025 episode of households spending down excess savings amid a strong labour market complicates the standard prediction that anxious consumers hoard.

Example

In Aiyagari's 1994 calibration, introducing uninsurable labour-income risk and a borrowing constraint raised the aggregate capital stock and pushed the equilibrium real interest rate below the representative-agent rate, as households over-save for precaution. Modern HANK descendants (Kaplan-Moll-Violante, 2018) use the same machinery to show that a fiscal transfer hits aggregate demand harder than the permanent-income model predicts, because high-MPC constrained households spend it immediately rather than smoothing it over a lifetime.

Mechanism

max E Σ βᵗ u(cₜ) s.t. cₜ + aₜ₊₁ = (1+r)aₜ + yₜ, aₜ₊₁ ≥ a̲ (borrowing constraint), yₜ uninsurable

How desks use it

  • Estimating the fiscal multiplier of stimulus transfers via the high-MPC constrained share
  • Assessing distributional incidence of rate hikes across the wealth distribution
  • Modelling precautionary-savings drag on consumption during recession risk

Key moves

  • 1994Aiyagari formalises uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and borrowing constraints in a general-equilibrium incomplete-markets framework.
  • 2018Kaplan, Moll & Violante's HANK model embeds incomplete markets in New Keynesian monetary analysis.

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By The Ledger DeskLast reviewed 2026-06-20